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“两会”的最大玄机——GDP目标下调意味着什么?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月18日 17:39:27
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U米官方注册平台直招龙虎代理客服QQ【3514565791】诚招代理【在线开户网址um996.com】龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯分分彩,5分,10分彩,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。“两会”的最大玄机——GDP目标下调意味着什么?

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(4、从)(数)(字)(上)(看)(,基)(建)(投)(资)(投)(资)(中)(枢)(较)(2016年)(下)(降)(已)(是)(必)(然)(。2016年)(相)(比)(2015年)(中)(央)(财)(政)(预)(算)(内)(投)(资)(增)(速)(为)(9.3%,而)(2017年)(相)(比)(2016年)(增)(速)(仅)(为)(1.5%,更)(直)(观)(的)(表)(明)(财)(政)(政)(策)(重)(心)(的)(变)(化)(。
三)(、货)(币)(政)(策)(确)(认)(“稳)(健)(中)(性)(”,彻)(底)(告)(别)(“稳)(健)(略)(偏)(宽)(松)(”
政)(府)(工)(作)(报)(告)(首)(次)(明)(确)(“稳)(健)(中)(性)(”基)(调)(,在)(“稳)(健)(”的)(基)(础)(上)(加)(上)(“中)(性)(”二)(字)(,与)(中)(央)(经)(济)(工)(作)(会)(议)(、央)(行)(货)(币)(政)(策)(执)(行)(报)(告)(的)(定)(调)(一)(致)(,我)(们)(的)(解)(读)(是)(:
1、“稳)(健)(中)(性)(”的)(实)(质)(内)(涵)(是)(:“不)(再)(稳)(健)(略)(偏)(宽)(松)(”。正)(如)(央)(行)(货)(币)(政)(策)(执)(行)(报)(告)(所)(言)(,在)(2014-2016年)(,尽)(管)(央)(行)(货)(币)(政)(策)(基)(调)(是)(“稳)(健)(”,但)(在)(实)(际)(执)(行)(过)(程)(中)(却)(常)(常)(是)(“稳)(健)(略)(偏)(宽)(松)(”,既)(有)(稳)(增)(长)(的)(原)(因)(,也)(有)(“股)(灾)(”的)(原)(因)(,而)(在)(经)(济)(平)(稳)(、股)(市)(正)(常)(化)(之)(后)(,央)(行)(有)(必)(要)(退)(出)(“稳)(健)(略)(偏)(宽)(松)(”政)(策)(。
2、对)(于)(“稳)(健)(中)(性)(”的)(具)(体)(措)(施)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(包)(括)(以)(下)(几)(个)(方)(面)(:
一)(是)(M2目)(标)(下)(调)(至)(12%,符)(合)(“去)(杠)(杆)(”的)(需)(要)(,有)(助)(于)(环)(节)(M2/GDP快)(速)(上)(行)(的)(趋)(势)(;
二)(是)(缓)(慢)(适)(度)(上)(调)(公)(开)(市)(场)(招)(标)(利)(率)(,修)(复)(2015年)(“股)(灾)(”之)(后)(将)(货)(币)(市)(场)(利)(率)(固)(定)(在)(过)(低)(水)(平)(的)(局)(面)(,这)(也)(符)(合)(“维)(护)(流)(动)(性)(基)(本)(稳)(定)(”到)(“维)(护)(流)(动)(性)(基)(本)(稳)(定)(”的)(变)(化)(;
三)(是)(存)(贷)(款)(利)(率)(调)(整)(会)(非)(常)(谨)(慎)(,在)(CPI中)(枢)(上)(行)(至)(2.5%以)(上)(之)(前)(几)(乎)(没)(有)(上)(调)(的)(可)(能)(,而)(2017年)(CPI中)(枢)(超)(过)(2.5%的)(可)(能)(性)(极)(低)(。
四)(、CPI目)(标)(维)(持)(3%,“滞)(胀)(论)(”仍)(是)(杞)(人)(忧)(天)(
近)(期)(,市)(场)(舆)(论)(对)(于)(通)(胀)(甚)(至)(“滞)(胀)(”的)(担)(忧)(不)(断)(增)(加)(,主)(要)(依)(据)(是)(PPI持)(续)(走)(高)(,以)(及)(过)(去)(两)(年)(货)(币)(宽)(松)(导)(致)(恶)(果)(,但)(我)(们)(持)(否)(定)(态)(度)(,主)(要)(逻)(辑)(是)(:
1、我)(们)(在)(2016年)(上)(半)(年)(市)(场)(“滞)(胀)(”担)(忧)(时)(,写)(了)(系)(列)(报)(告)(反)(驳)(“滞)(胀)(”论)((《杞)(人)(忧)(天)(!驳)(危)(言)(耸)(听)(的)(中)(国)(“滞)(胀)(论)(“》等)(,作)(者)(:邓)(海)(清)(,陈)(曦)(),现)(在)(看)(结)(论)(和)(逻)(辑)(依)(然)(成)(立)(:每)(一)(次)(高)(通)(胀)(必)(然)(与)(货)(币)(超)(发)(有)(关)(,但)(并)(非)(每)(一)(次)(货)(币)(超)(发)(都)(必)(然)(导)(致)(高)(通)(胀)(甚)(至)(滞)(胀)(;货)(币)(超)(发)(导)(致)(周)(期)(型)(的)(滞)(胀)(的)(前)(提)(是)(必)(须)(经)(历)(经)(济)(过)(热)(,现)(代)(金)(融)(条)(件)(下)(,货)(币)(超)(发)(的)(结)(果)(是)(金)(融)(资)(产)(价)(格)(泡)(沫)(,而)(不)(是)(高)(通)(胀)(。
2、对)(于)(PPI回)(升)(导)(致)(滞)(胀)(,我)(们)(同)(样)(不)(认)(可)(。回)(顾)(中)(国)(的)(PPI走)(势)(可)(以)(发)(现)(,PPI的)(弹)(性)(远)(远)(大)(于)(CPI,2015年)(PPI增)(速)(仅)(为)(-5%,但)(CPI仍)(然)(能)(够)(维)(持)(1.5%,显)(著)(PPI大)(幅)(上)(行)(,不)(代)(表)(CPI也)(将)(大)(幅)(上)(行)(。
3、PPI同)(比)(将)(在)(2月)(份)(见)(顶)(,之)(后)(逐)(渐)(回)(落)(。随)(着)(高)(基)(数)(的)(出)(现)(,PPI同)(比)(将)(在)(3月)(份)(之)(后)(开)(始)(显)(著)(下)(降)(,直)(至)(回)(复)(正)(常)(状)(态)(。
4、PPI导)(致)(CPI上)(行)(,有)(两)(种)(情)(况)(:
一)(是)(出)(现)(“物)(价)(-工)(资)(”螺)(旋)(上)(升)(,这)(是)(70年)(代)(滞)(胀)(以)(及)(巴)(西)(的)(情)(况)(,中)(国)(工)(资)(增)(速)(并)(未)(显)(著)(上)(行)(,显)(然)(不)(具)(备)(这)(种)(情)(况)(;
二)(是)(出)(现)(经)(济)(过)(热)(,即)(中)(国)(在)(2007年)(和)(2010-2011年)(的)(情)(况)(,而)(现)(在)(中)(国)(也)(显)(然)(没)(有)(经)(济)(过)(热)(的)(迹)(象)(。
与)(2016年)(上)(半)(年)(相)(同)(,现)(在)(的)(“滞)(胀)(论)(”仍)(然)(是)(杞)(人)(忧)(天)(。回)(到)(政)(府)(工)(作)(报)(告)(,需)(要)(强)(调)(,通)(胀)(目)(标)(从)(来)(都)(是)(“上)(限)(”概)(念)(,而)(不)(是)(“中)(枢)(”概)(念)(。根)(据)(我)(们)(上)(述)(分)(析)(,2017年)(CPI中)(枢)(超)(过)(2.5%的)(可)(能)(性)(都)(不)(大)(,触)(及)(3%的)(可)(能)(性)(更)(是)(几)(乎)(没)(有)(,滞)(胀)(论)(与)(2016年)(上)(半)(年)(一)(样)(仍)(属)(杞)(人)(忧)(天)(。
五)(、经)(济)(L型)(下)(半)(场)(,长)(期)(看)(好)(股)(市)(健)(康)(牛)(
我)(们)(在)(2016年)(初)(就)(已)(经)(提)(出)(,“中)(国)(经)(济)(L型)(拐)(点)(已)(过)(,偏)(执)(看)(空)(中)(国)(经)(济)(必)(犯)(大)(错)(”,提)(示)(投)(资)(者)(必)(须)(改)(变)(投)(资)(逻)(辑)(。
回)(顾)(2016年)(各)(市)(场)(表)(现)(,正)(与)(我)(们)(的)(判)(断)(一)(致)(:1、最)(大)(的)(机)(遇)(在)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(,黑)(色)(系)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(暴)(涨)(;2、股)(市)(除)(年)(初)(“股)(灾)(”之)(外)(持)(续)(稳)(步)(向)(上)(,2-12月)(股)(市)(涨)(幅)(超)(过)(20%;3、债)(市)(在)(经)(历)(6-9月)(的)(“资)(产)(荒)(”泡)(沫)(之)(后)(,在)(10月)(开)(始)(进)(入)(“债)(市)(黑)(暗)(时)(代)(”,综)(合)(来)(看)(债)(券)(市)(场)(全)(年)(收)(益)(最)(差)(。
我)(们)(之)(所)(以)(反)(复)(强)(调)(“经)(济)(L型)(下)(半)(场)(”,因)(为)(对)(于)(投)(资)(而)(言)(,基)(本)(面)(背)(景)(意)(味)(着)(投)(资)(思)(维)(的)(重)(大)(变)(化)(。最)(核)(心)(的)(理)(念)(是)(:
1、在)(经)(济)(下)(行)(过)(程)(中)(,债)(权)(类)(资)(产)(优)(于)(股)(权)(类)(资)(产)(,因)(为)(一)(方)(面)(债)(权)(类)(资)(产)(能)(够)(保)(本)(,另)(一)(方)(面)(还)(能)(获)(得)(利)(率)(下)(降)(的)(资)(本)(利)(得)(;而)(股)(权)(类)(资)(产)(在)(经)(济)(下)(行)(过)(程)(中)(则)(会)(由)(于)(未)(来)(预)(期)(现)(金)(流)(的)(不)(断)(下)(降)(,导)(致)(股)(价)(持)(续)(走)(低)((货)(币)(宽)(松)(导)(致)(的)(水)(牛)(除)(外)()。
2、在)(经)(济)(拐)(点)(已)(过)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,股)(权)(类)(资)(产)(优)(于)(债)(权)(类)(资)(产)(,因)(为)(债)(权)(类)(资)(产)(将)(受)(到)(利)(率)(上)(行)(导)(致)(的)(负)(的)(资)(本)(利)(得)(;而)(相)(反)(股)(权)(类)(资)(产)(则)(受)(益)(于)(盈)(利)(持)(续)(改)(善)(。
此)(外)(,需)(要)(纠)(正)(市)(场)(关)(于)(“央)(行)(货)(币)(政)(策)(变)(化)(导)(致)(股)(市)(转)(熊)(”的)(看)(法)(。从)(美)(国)(经)(验)(来)(看)(,长)(周)(期)(而)(言)(,加)(息)(从)(来)(都)(不)(是)(导)(致)(股)(市)(下)(跌)(的)(原)(因)(,相)(反)(无)(论)(是)(美)(国)(90年)(代)(还)(是)(20世)(纪)(初)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(周)(期)(,都)(是)(美)(国)(股)(市)(上)(涨)(周)(期)(,;从)(中)(国)(经)(验)(来)(看)(,2005-2007年)(中)(国)(货)(币)(政)(策)(紧)(缩)(周)(期)(,同)(样)(是)(中)(国)(股)(市)(上)(涨)(时)(期)(,因)(此)(我)(们)(不)(认)(为)(中)(国)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(微)(调)(会)(导)(致)(中)(国)(股)(市)(进)(入)(熊)(市)(。
对)(于)(20117年)(中)(国)(市)(场)(,继)(续)(维)(持)(股)(市)(健)(康)(牛)(,债)(市)(震)(荡)(市)(,汇)(率)(现)(拐)(点)(的)(观)(点)(不)(变)(。
关)(于)(股)(市)(,长)(期)(看)(好)(中)(国)(股)(市)(健)(康)(牛)(。股)(市)(的)(表)(现)(更)(多)(地)(还)(是)(看)(企)(业)(的)(基)(本)(面)(情)(况)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(企)(稳)(态)(势)(明)(显)(,且)(更)(加)(重)(视)(提)(高)(制)(造)(业)(质)(量)(、降)(低)(企)(业)(成)(本)(持)(续)(利)(好)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(持)(续)(改)(善)(带)(来)(的)(股)(市)(“健)(康)(牛)(”,尤)(其)(是)(大)(盘)(蓝)(筹)(股)(、行)(业)(龙)(头)(股)(将)(是)(良)(好)(的)(投)(资)(机)(会)(。
关)(于)(债)(市)(,维)(持)(震)(荡)(市)(的)(观)(点)(不)(变)(。一)(方)(面)(基)(本)(面)(、政)(策)(面)(、资)(金)(面)(利)(空)(债)(市)(因)(素)(确)(实)(存)(在)(,另)(一)(方)(面)(当)(前)(的)(债)(券)(收)(益)(率)(已)(经)(隐)(含)(了)(多)(次)(加)(息)(预)(期)(,相)(比)(贷)(款)(而)(言)(具)(有)(较)(高)(的)(配)(置)(价)(值)((在)(贷)(款)(利)(率)(不)(上)(调)(的)(前)(提)(下)(),因)(此)(我)(们)(维)(持)(“债)(市)(最)(黑)(暗)(时)(代)(”已)(过)(,债)(市)(长)(期)(震)(荡)(的)(观)(点)(不)(变)(。
关)(于)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(,2017年)(将)(出)(现)(汇)(率)(拐)(点)(。从)(基)(本)(面)(、货)(币)(政)(策)(、汇)(率)(政)(策)(、资)(产)(价)(格)(泡)(沫)(程)(度)(对)(比)(来)(看)(,2017年)(均)(有)(利)(于)(人)(民)(币)(升)(值)(,维)(持)(2017年)(人)(民)(币)(兑)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(拐)(点)(的)(判)(断)(不)(变)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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