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私募看后市:4000点以上不该盲目追涨

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月18日 17:46:16
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(  在)(场)(的)(基)(金)(经)(理)(乃)(望)(正)(资)(本)(合)(伙)(人)(、投)(资)(总)(监)(冯)(永)(欢)(。就)(在)(座)(各)(位)(的)(忧)(虑)(,冯)(永)(欢)(称)(,4000点)(以)(上)(不)(该)(盲)(目)(追)(涨)(,而)(更)(应)(该)(去)(挖)(掘)(潜)(力)(行)(业)(与)(个)(股)(的)(市)(场)(机)(会)(。未)(来)(十)(年)(,一)(大)(批)(公)(司)(将)(要)(经)(历)(行)(业)(整)(合)(,当)(前)(可)(以)(提)(前)(布)(局)(去)(捕)(捉)(“从)(分)(散)(到)(集)(中)(走)(过)(一)(个)(整)(合)(周)(期)(”的)(行)(业)(龙)(头)(。  把)(握)(行)(业)(机)(会)(  在)(冯)(永)(欢)(看)(来)(,经)(历)(了)(前)(期)(的)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(,现)(在)(市)(场)(处)(于)(一)(个)(估)(值)(严)(重)(分)(化)(的)(阶)(段)(,一)(批)(股)(票)(是)(严)(重)(高)(估)(的)(,但)(另)(一)(批)(还)(是)(很)(有)(吸)(引)(力)(的)(,它)(们)(的)(两)(三)(年)(业)(绩)(涨)(幅)(远)(远)(超)(过)(股)(价)(。  对)(于)(如)(何)(筛)(选)(出)(这)(类)(业)(绩)(出)(众)(的)(股)(票)(,冯)(永)(欢)(认)(为)(,自)(上)(而)(下)(来)(看)(行)(业)(的)(话)(,投)(资)(方)(向)(有)(三)(个)(:一)(是)(大)(消)(费)(,包)(括)(在)(线)(旅)(游)(、在)(线)(教)(育)(、在)(线)(娱)(乐)(、医)(药)(等)(,这)(些)(都)(是)(未)(来)(二)(三)(十)(年)(很)(确)(定)(的)(朝)(阳)(行)(业)(。比)(如)(由)(于)(老)(龄)(化)(趋)(势)(的)(出)(现)(,30年)(后)(中)(国)(老)(年)(人)(比)(例)(将)(占)(总)(人)(口)(的)(30%,这)(是)(推)(动)(医)(药)(、医)(疗)(需)(求)(增)(长)(的)(巨)(大)(动)(力)(,未)(来)(这)(个)(行)(业)(的)(体)(量)(将)(得)(到)(充)(分)(扩)(张)(。  二)(是)(环)(保)(、新)(能)(源)(,环)(境)(污)(染)(是)(过)(去)(三)(十)(多)(年)(经)(济)(发)(展)(的)(一)(个)(欠)(账)(,需)(要)(未)(来)(十)(年)(、二)(十)(年)(把)(它)(补)(齐)(。  三)(是)(优)(势)(制)(造)(业)(。当)(前)(有)(一)(个)(很)(热)(的)(词)(叫)(“互)(联)(网)(+”,是)(指)(互)(联)(网)(行)(业)(和)(传)(统)(行)(业)(结)(合)(利)(用)(互)(联)(网)(的)(技)(术)(来)(改)(造)(传)(统)(行)(业)(。这)(些)(行)(业)(被)(互)(联)(网)(改)(造)(后)(,极)(大)(地)(提)(升)(了)(行)(业)(效)(率)(,这)(是)(它)(未)(来)(潜)(力)(所)(在)(。现)(在)(很)(多)(人)(已)(经)(在)(互)(联)(网)(医)(疗)(这)(方)(面)(展)(开)(了)(布)(局)(。  捕)(捉)(大)(牛)(股)(  谈)(完)(行)(业)(性)(机)(会)(,冯)(永)(欢)(进)(一)(步)(把)(话)(题)(引)(向)(了)(个)(股)(领)(域)(。他)(称)(,在)(传)(统)(行)(业)(中)(,行)(业)(成)(长)(均)(值)(不)(高)(但)(不)(乏)(公)(司)(快)(速)(成)(长)(,往)(往)(是)(五)(年)(5倍)(以)(上)(。过)(去)(五)(年)(利)(润)(两)(倍)(以)(上)(的)(有)(500家)(、增)(长)(5倍)(以)(上)(的)(有)(200家)(,有)(一)(批)(公)(司)(竞)(争)(力)(突)(出)(,跟)(同)(行)(比)(起)(来)(很)(有)(优)(势)(,成)(长)(空)(间)(大)(。比)(方)(东)(方)(雨)(虹)(,做)(防)(水)(材)(料)(的)(,去)(年)(收)(入)(刚)(过)(50亿)(,约)(3%、4%的)(市)(占)(率)(,是)(行)(业)(第)(一)(,排)(在)(第)(二)(的)(只)(有)(10亿)(左)(右)(,但)(绝)(大)(多)(数)(防)(水)(材)(料)(的)(同)(行)(根)(本)(没)(有)(一)(个)(现)(代)(化)(的)(公)(司)(运)(营)(技)(术)(,根)(本)(就)(是)(类)(似)(于)(小)(作)(坊)(的)(运)(作)(模)(式)(,所)(以)(东)(方)(雨)(虹)(就)(特)(别)(鹤)(立)(鸡)(群)(,有)(竞)(争)(优)(势)(。  再)(比)(如)(,从)(1998年)(到)(2014年)(这)(16年)(间)(,格)(力)(电)(器)(的)(收)(入)(增)(约)(30倍)(,利)(润)(增)(加)(60倍)(,为)(什)(么)(会)(有)(这)(么)(大)(的)(飞)(跃)(?那)(是)(因)(为)(空)(调)(这)(个)(行)(业)(市)(场)(很)(大)(,1998年)(的)(时)(候)(市)(场)(份)(额)(还)(很)(分)(散)(,但)(如)(今)(集)(中)(度)(已)(经)(很)(高)(。从)(1998年)(的)(分)(散)(到)(2014年)(的)(集)(中)(,格)(力)(几)(乎)(占)(了)(半)(壁)(江)(山)(,再)(加)(上)(美)(的)(、海)(尔)(,几)(乎)(三)(家)(垄)(断)(,从)(分)(散)(到)(集)(中)(,完)(成)(了)(一)(个)(整)(合)(。整)(合)(之)(后)(,市)(场)(赢)(家)(利)(润)(增)(长)(非)(常)(惊)(人)(。站)(在)(2015年)(这)(个)(时)(间)(点)(上)(,还)(有)(很)(多)(行)(业)(非)(常)(分)(散)(,他)(们)(要)(走)(的)(路)(和)(空)(调)(行)(业)(过)(去)(的)(路)(是)(一)(样)(的)(。很)(多)(时)(候)(资)(本)(市)(场)(太)(过)(短)(视)(,总)(是)(看)(一)(年)(、几)(个)(月)(,如)(果)(时)(间)(拉)(长)(了)(看)(,效)(果)(十)(分)(惊)(人)(。  不)(过)(,冯)(永)(欢)(还)(向)(投)(资)(者)(提)(出)(了)(几)(点)(忠)(告)(:  首)(先)(,避)(免)(盲)(人)(摸)(象)(,比)(如)(说)(十)(年)(前)(有)(人)(号)(召)(大)(家)(做)(草)(根)(调)(研)(,他)(建)(议)(去)(药)(店)(看)(药)(品)(的)(生)(产)(日)(期)(,如)(果)(是)(很)(长)(时)(间)(以)(前)(生)(产)(的)(说)(明)(在)(药)(店)(放)(很)(久)(了)(,卖)(得)(不)(好)(,如)(果)(生)(产)(日)(期)(很)(新)(说)(明)(卖)(得)(好)(。听)(起)(来)(很)(有)(道)(理)(,但)(局)(限)(性)(很)(明)(显)(。因)(为)(中)(国)(的)(药)(店)(很)(多)(,一)(个)(人)(能)(看)(一)(两)(家)(,但)(看)(不)(完)(1万)(家)(,看)(个)(十)(几)(家)(,很)(难)(说)(这)(十)(来)(家)(能)(代)(表)(全)(国)(。  第)(二)(是)(避)(免)(人)(云)(亦)(云)(。比)(方)(说)(摩)(天)(大)(楼)(理)(论)(,摩)(天)(大)(楼)(建)(立)(的)(时)(候)(就)(是)(经)(济)(见)(顶)(的)(时)(候)(,经)(济)(要)(开)(始)(走)(下)(坡)(路)(。这)(颠)(倒)(了)(因)(果)(。是)(因)(为)(经)(济)(不)(行)(了)(,没)(有)(实)(力)(去)(建)(更)(高)(的)(楼)(,所)(以)(那)(个)(楼)(才)(成)(为)(最)(高)(楼)(,而)(不)(是)(那)(栋)(楼)(诞)(生)(了)(经)(济)(才)(不)(行)(的)(。  最)(后)(,冯)(永)(欢)(总)(结)(道)(,虽)(然)(经)(济)(比)(较)(差)(,但)(是)(股)(市)(还)(是)(有)(机)(会)(的)(。主)(要)(有)(两)(个)(原)(因)(:一)(个)(是)(经)(济)(体)(本)(身)(在)(新)(陈)(代)(谢)(;第)(二)(个)(是)(利)(率)(也)(就)(是)(资)(金)(价)(格)(在)(往)(下)(走)(,所)(以)(居)(民)(从)(资)(金)(配)(置)(的)(角)(度)(来)(看)(,市)(场)(还)(是)(有)(吸)(引)(力)(的)(。点)(击)(进)(入)(【股)(友)(会)(】参)(与)(讨)(论)(
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